2012 Interscholastic Championship Predictions

By

(April 20, 2012)

Note: The paces mentioned here are all in minutes per kilometer.

Table of Contents

Varsity

Pace setters

Will HubschWill came in 3rd place last year in Varsity Boys with about a 12-minute pace, and Nathan and Lance are not competing this year. In addition, last weekend Will set a blistering pace at the U.S. Champs, winning the M-18 class with paces of 6.6/11.0/11.4 for S/M/L. Look to Will for some impressive numbers this weekend.

Meg ParsonMeg came in 1st place last year in Varsity Girls with an 8.5-minute pace on middle and a 11.9-minute pace on long, and the pack is not catching up. Last weekend at the U.S. Champs, Meg won the F-20 Long with an absolutely scalding pace of 10.5 minutes. Look to Meg for some paces to rival or beat the Varsity Boys top runner.

Dark Horses

Nicholas FisserNicholas moved up to Varsity this year from an 8th-place JV Boys finish last year, but has run a 12.5-minute pace on an NTOA Red course recently. Definitely an up and coming contender!

Ruby Spring — This is Ruby’s first year orienteering, and ran JV during the league season, but moved up to Varsity for the Western Region Champs. Starting at a 14-minute pace at a Sprint, she moved up to an 8.5-minute pace in an open park, then pulled a 19.9-minute pace at Tilden, both complex and steep. She then ran a 17.3-minute pace on a complex contours-only map at the WRIS Champs. I predict a 13.5-minute pace for Ruby at the IS Champs. Ruby's physical prowess and her sparkling personality remind me of World Champion Tove Alexandersson. Watch out for this one...

Teams

PESH VarsityDarrell continues to do an outstanding job with his team. Here are my predictions for paces:

Berkeley — None of Wayne’s students graduated last year so his team members are mostly veterans of last year's 8th-place finish.

Lakeside 1 — Lakeside used to win every year with their three superstar women, now in college. The momentum of their legacy has carried Lakeside to two first-place finishes in their league season (boys and girls have separate team classes in WIOL). Paces are difficult to compare here, as everyone had paces over 20 minutes at the WIOL championship, but much lower in the city parks.

Wolverine Battalion — The Wolverines took first place last year, taking 2nd, 9th, 20th, and 33rd in Varsity Boys, and 15th in Varsity Girls. Anthony (20th) is the only one to return this year. Aaron was 14th in JV Boys, Trevor was 21st in JV Boys, Noah and Travis are new this year. With this little history, my pace predictions come with a high degree of uncertainty.

There are other teams that I haven't had time to look at, but from this list I'd have to give the nod to PESH because of their depth and experience. Berkeley has a chance, but their results are still highly variable. Again I'd take Lakeside 1 over the Wolverines because of the newness of the Wolverine students.

JV

Don't know...

Middle School

Julia Doubson is favored to take the Middle School Girls, and drag her team to a first-place club team slot.